Djmixxx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:42 am
mmmPI wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 3:45 am
Also it shows that the initial attack has failed, suffering huge losses, and conscript are plan B, otherwise conscript would have been sent alongside the initial attack to maximize their impact on battlefield;
So it is, Russia was ready for such a SWO (war) only on paper.
This is what i keep saying, you say it's correct, but then try to argue against the obvious.
The impreparation is not the worst thing, it is the crual unprovoked invasion attempt. It makes russia responsible for war itself, not only responsible for losing russian lifes but killing other peoples.
Djmixxx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:42 am
mmmPI wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 3:45 am
Now with no time to train or good equipment left, it is woesome to see real humans "used" like a bad RTS AI does with its unit day after day.
The situation in the Russian troops is now the same as in the Ukrainian troops at the beginning of the war.
Some of mobilized now are in the SWO (war), some are trained and equipped in the training facilities.
No, the Russian troop are still trying to invade foreign country while Ukraine troops defend themselves. Situation is different.
Ukraine in the beginning of the war, and today is motivated to defend his people, russians do not know for what they fight, the propaganda changed so many time since the beginning of the war. This was never the case for Ukraine, not even during the early phase.
Later Ukraine military situation kept improving, while Russia situation kept worsening, now the roles are reversed,Russia lost initiative, abandonned several front, is retreating everywhere except in bakhmut, where it keeps loosing many troops everyday in costly attacks against a defended position.
Djmixxx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:42 am
mmmPI wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 3:45 am
In Ukraine situation is different because there was a huge wave of volunteer wanting to join the army when Russia started the invasion but the equipment was lacking,
it took the time for Ukraine to train those volunteer, and equip them, this is still happening with help of increasingly more countries now than in the early day of war which took many european people by surprise despite the USA's alerts .
Russia is now following the same path. Education, training, weapons. At the same time there is no great dependence on foreign supplies. But the benefits of Ukraine in the high motivation of the military of Ukraine, this is not the case with the Russian military.
Education is a myth, the figures don't add up, Russia doesn't have the military capabilities to train 300 000 mens in a year, that would require a lot of personnel to teach things, and the available personnel is already in Ukraine or dead. Contrary to Ukraine whose training is made by several countries whose army are not at war and can combine their training program to offer Ukraine some of the best training in the world while their active personnel is fully available for the defense on the ground.
Also Russia started its mobilization way later,(6 month at least) but already sending conscript to the front, 77 000 said putin yesterday, it will not replace the best equipment lost, those are not really trained, in 15 days you don't become a soldier.
Russian cannot follow the same path of being supported to face unjustified aggression from its invading neighbour, because it is the one attempting to invade.
Djmixxx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:42 am
mmmPI wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 3:45 am
I think it explain the reason Russia was advancing at first, then stall and is now retreating here and there,
i think if they were to retreat before Ukrainian push them out it could prevent much suffering.
Russia carried out two devastating retreats from Kyiv and from the Kharkov region. Then came the change of the Russian commander. And the retreat from Kherson was organized on a completely different level. Attacks on the infrastructure of Ukraine also began. The tactics of the Russians have clearly changed, and those who think that Ukraine will continue to defeat the Russians just as easily can be very wrong.
The russian commander changed several time during the war, because it was killed, or because it failed, one has to wonder if the tactic is to sent the worst guy first, or not, it's unlikely Russia did this right ? it's more likely russia put their best element for the first attempt, and seeing the failure ,it tried plan b or c or d , like with the conscript, they are not the first wave, those were the elites troops that were defeated, and then sending less experienced troops is unlikely to work better. same with generals i would say. but maybe the future retreats will be even more organized, i think it is the path toward the least suffering for everyone so maybe Russia appointed a general specialized in retreats and that would be a good move.
Djmixxx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:42 am
Russia and Ukraine have also switched roles. Now Ukraine is advancing, and the Russians are on the defensive. And the losses of the attacking side are always higher than those of the defending side. How long will Ukraine and its foreign partners be able to fuel this offensive fire with human resources?
After all, Ukraine needs to constantly show the results of arms deliveries.
Russia does not need to show anyone. She can sit on the defensive for a very long time.
This is a lie, Russian leader launched a war, and need to somehow make it look like it's not a complete disaster, while Ukraine already impressed the whole world with their defense against an army that now look like overated. "the 2nd army in the world".
I think this is why russia is still sending waves of troops trying to attack bakhmut, while Ukraine can sit in its defensive position during the winter, and see where to break the front again because they have initiative.
The conscript may be sent to the "meat grinder" to help the ex-inmates from wagner mercenaries. sent to suicide mission.
If the liberation of Kherson was slow, you said yourself that Russian troop retreated fast, even before Ukrainian troops arrived. What about the russian attempt at occupiying bakhmut ? is it even slower ?
It seem to me russian troops are far from their home, during winter, increasingly composed of untrainned personnel, while the equipment and logistic steadily worsened since february, the targeting of civilians population has no effect on the battlefield, it seem to be the strategy to try and have Ukraine agree to a cease fire because russian are loosing ground and knows it will continue over time but it only makes Ukrainian more resolute to defend and oust the invaders .
Also the "estimate" from bank of russia to replace the data not published are talking about a barrel at 70$ to say it's fine, but G7 took sanction last week or so to set price cap at 60$, and now the price is even lower :
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil
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