The thing is, I would have guessed about 20 to 30 percent of players use mods, so I'd land on the other end of ChatGPT.
Why 20 to 30 percent?
Because I believe, if you'd ask in this forum or in r/factorio how many people modded their game at some time you'd end up with 80 to 90 percent of people saying yes.
But in both those places you only find actual fans of the game and not the typical Factorio player. If the game has sold let's say: 5 million copies (it was 3.5 at the start of 2023, and it apparently sold 500k per year (
https://80.lv/articles/factorio-sales-s ... ion-copies)), then I believe that it's not unrealistic that 3 or 4 million players played the game for one base (if they even started it) and after that moved on. I think most casual players won't even know what mods are, and they'd never care enough to actually use them.
And then you have 1 or 2 million players who invest more time, participate on this forum or on reddit, become fans and actually start playing over and over again. And most of them will use mods at some point. But these people are not the majority of players. We only think we are, because we only see ourselves on the internet and not the silent majority of players who never got past chemical science.
And that would actually fit to the 681k users of Alien Biomes, because it sounds reasonable to me that about 50 percent of players who use mods actually used Alien Biomes at some point, because it just works as a graphical enhancement and looks cool.
So close to 700k ABiomes users, double that to about 1.4 million mod users overall, and we end up with 20-30 percent of 5 million players.
All that said: I have zero confidence that I'm right about this, because there's just no reliable data available, and I pulled all these numbers out of thin air.
But I also don't see why the ChatGPT guesstimate should be more believable than my idea, especially since it can't give a reasoning for these numbers, and I bet if you would disagree with it, it would simply correct its estimation to whatever you suggest, because the truth is: the LLM has no clue either.
So, yeah, I just hope that maybe a Wube dev is also curious about this and shares some actual data.
